I’m Just Saying by Austin Rhodes: Red State Stats

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“There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damn lies, and statistics.”

– Mark Twain

America’s favorite author didn’t like fibs, and he certainly had a problem with fibs that seemed to be backed up (facetiously) by math. That said, he likely would have had a hard time with the premise of an interesting column published in 2015 by our left-wing friends at “Daily Kos”. And although the essay-in-question has some age to it, it seems unlikely that in the ten tumultuous years since, those fuzzy math opinions have changed much.

It’s titled “Religion, Racism & the Consequences of Republican Policy:  Poverty, Obesity, & Incarceration.”  I suggest you Google the piece. Take a look.

The column would have you believe that states dominated by Republican voters are suffering from a collection of maladies seemingly brought about by their conservative policies. They surmise Southern red states controlled by Republicans:

1.  Are the most evangelical/religious

2.  Have the most racists  

3.  Have the lowest wages

4.  Are the most impoverished

5.  Have the highest regional use of food stamps

6.  Have the highest rates of teen pregnancy

7.  Have the highest rates of obesity

8.  Have higher rates of heart disease and stroke

9.  Have higher rates of cancer mortality

10. Have fewer high school graduates  

11. Have fewer residents with college degrees

12. Have the highest rates of incarceration  

Who knew Georgia and South Carolina qualified as Hell with gnats, and good barbecue?

There are some subjective claims here that while interesting to speculate about, are impossible to validate. I find it hard to believe there is a quantitative scale that can measure the spirituality of a given region – Sunday services attendance notwithstanding. Some of the best and most God-fearing people I have ever known refuse to step a foot inside a real church, while lunatics like Charles Manson, Rev. Jim Jones, and David Koresh are all self-described church leaders.

As far as how many racists are in any one place, the piece tallied objectionable tweets made after President Obama’s 2012 re-election. If the data is to be believed, there were virtually no offensive tweets made in the states of Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, or South Dakota during the period the study was conducted.

Historically, low wages are a direct reflection of the much lower costs of living and real estate in the South, so I will yield to that point, with the given explanation/justification.

But let me concentrate for a moment on the numbers that are hard and fast, and put to twisted use in this outrageously flawed essay.  

In the State of Georgia, we do have a problem in a few of the categories listed, specifically, teen pregnancy, the high school graduation rate, the number of residents with college degrees, and the incarceration rate. But as a resident of one of the most conservative counties in this conservative state, I can tell you these aren’t problems in my neighborhood.

So where are all the dropouts, poor folks, illegitimate children on state relief, and incarcerated people coming from? They are here in Georgia, no doubt, but appear to occupy the neighborhoods of the most consistently liberal voting blocks in the region.

Go to the websites of the Richmond and Columbia County Boards of Elections and pull up the precinct by precinct voting records in the last five Presidential elections.  

Take a good hard look at which precincts vote overwhelming Democrat (some areas to the tune of 90% and better) and then compare them to the precincts that have the highest percentages of Republican votes (usually in the neighborhood of 70%-80%).

It is clear that neighborhoods with strong education systems, and lower crime rates are more likely to be a Republican stronghold. Conversely, if you are in a crime-ridden area with horrible education stats and a high rate of public assistance directed at one parent households, you have landed in Democrat Central.

Ironically, the wealthy tend to be more diverse in their political beliefs than the poor. There are way more upwardly mobile folks in the South voting Democrat than there are Republicans living in squalor. There are anomalies, of course, but the trend is solid.

Conservatives (and especially the GOP) are not perfect by any stretch, but in this neck of the woods, we are the ones more consistently paying higher taxes and supporting the poor. Yes, the red states have statistical baggage, but the majority of it is bluer than blue.